From last year – self-assessment of my predictions for 2010. Short assessment: my worst year for predictions.
1) Employee engagement spend, recruitment spend will increase. SCORE: 50%. Compared to 2009, the tap opened again. As usual, my prediction was ahead of itself as Q4 and Q1 really took off.
2) Free content will (really) begin to replace over-priced Intellectual Property such as specialist publishers in non-traditional channels (for example, Forrester, Melcrum, IABC, etc.). SCORE: 50%. Well … sort of. With the big exception of Rupert Murdoch’s experiment, which seems like it might succeed and change the game for traditional online publishing. On the other hand, LinkedIn Groups are having a positive impact on users particularly around professional associations – perhaps less positively for the publishers.
3) Small and exclusive will replace big, blingy and mass market, big time. SCORE: 50%. American Express campaign is a good indicator, “secret gigs” have become as much a must have as O2 arena tickets. But we have some way to go.
5) People will finally “get” PTT (Push To Talk) – and wonder why they didn’t use it 5 years ago when it was available on most handsets. SCORE: 0%, at least in my world.
6) Concentrated, tactical, ephemeral “microbranding” will begin to dislodge cumbersome and time consuming branding approaches – both corporate and consumer. SCORE: 25%. Starting to see some evidence. But not a lot.
7) The business book press will slowly begin to realise that people will pay for insightful brevity. We’ll see more 50-100 page books like Zag, The Brand Gap, The Talent Journey, Live Long and Prosper, etc. entering publishing schedules toward the end of the year and fewer pseudo-academic tomes of more than 200 pages. SCORE: 50%. Yes there is evidence but hard to gauge against blogs, internet sites etc.
8. ) Google will stumble and lose its way (they may then recover, we’ll see). SCORE: 25%. Sort of but not in a big way.
9) Powered by the wonderful success of Avatar, interactive experiences will begin to also gain traction in the corporate setting as well as in consumer home theatre and gaming. Invest now in 3D display companies… SCORE: 25%. 3D consumer TVs are out now … but 2011 might be the year.
10) Connecting internal comms to employer brand will gain mainstream acceptance, for example, internal comms about HR actually looking like and saying similar things to recruitment media. SCORE: 50%. Many of our clients are really taking a more holistic and inside out approach, or at least starting to and realising the turf challenges this presents.