2010 Predictions

Ok, here goes. This has been sitting a while and reading the paper this morning two of them are already well on their way to being accurate so perhaps I am not ambitious or thoughtful enough… but…

1)  Employee engagement spend, recruitment spend will increase – the speed of this being dependent on speed of recivery, but a definite increase.  Too much has been cut for business to sustain normal, sustainable operations.

2) Free content will (really) begin to replace over-priced Intellectural Property such as specialist publishers in non-traditional channels (for example, Forrester, Melcrum, IABC, etc.).  Slowly, of course, but noticeably as demand drops off due to alternative channels.  Smart companies will react to this with innovation and generosity of spirit. Dumb ones, won’t (probably increasing prices to fill the gap and pursuing illegal copying more vigorously).

3) Small and exclusive will replace big, blingy and mass market, big time.  Limited edition, limited access, preferred mail lists, word of mouth, invitation or recommendation-only access/membership, etc.

4) Something even more trendy will replace Twitter, then something will replace that.  And so on.  Privacy will become a much more relevant consideration as SM mature.

5) People will finally “get” PTT (Push To Talk) – and wonder why they didn’t use it 5 years ago when it was available on most handsets.

6) Concentrated, tactical, ephemeral “microbranding” will begin to dislodge cumbersome and time consuming branding approaches – both corporate and consumer.

7) The business book press will slowly begin to realise that people will pay for insightful brevity.  We’ll see more 50-100 page books like Zag, The Brand Gap, The Talent Journey, Live Long and Prosper, etc. entering publishing schedules toward the end of the year and fewer pseudo-academic tomes of more than 200 pages.

8. ) Google will stumble and lose its way (they may then recover, we’ll see). 

9)  Powerd by the wonderful success of Avatar, interactive experiences will begin to also gain traction in the corporate setting as well as in consumer home theatre and gaming. Invest now in 3D display companies…

10)  Connecting internal comms to employer brand will gain mainstream acceptance, for example, internal comms about HR actually looking like and saying similar things to recruitment media.


5 thoughts on “2010 Predictions

  1. Regarding 2, I had a quick chat with someone on twitter about this. It is getting increasingly difficult for those types of business to maintain audiences. New comers quickly find-out that much of the material these organisations offer is available, often in it’s original form, for free on blogs- simply-communicate, melcrum and ragan all have to change in order to survive.

    1. Thank you for the comment – agree wholeheartedly! I’m thinking about the band Wilco, who encourage people to file share their songs. Guess what? They are successful, lots of people know about them, and they make a lot of money… same model applies here…

  2. People who produce free content can produce other things they get people to pay for…

    When things are free like on-line publishing (wordpress) and on-line community hosting (Ning), and even officing and venues are democratically-priced (The Hub, not to be confused with Melcrum’s Hub), the overhead that necessitated a lot of cost has disappeared. Content becomes a marketing tool, not a product itself.

    All the best,

    Mike Klein

  3. Kevin, funny you mention a band, I was thinking of Nine Inch Nails, who have had something of a revival by pushing music for free, missing out the middleman and making much more on special edition box-sets, live performances and merchandise. The Slip is put out on Creative Commons with the words, “we encourage you to
    remix it, share it with your friends, post it on your blog, play it on your podcast, give it to strangers, etc.” They also host remixes done by other people.. erm, strangers :o) http://remix.nin.com/

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